Poll: Going nuclear

[vakkotaur]

The morning of July 16, 1945 saw the world's first nuclear test shot. Less than a month later the only two nuclear weapons used in warfare were detonated - or initiated if you prefer.[1] Since then there have been many nuclear detonations and many wars, but they have been isolated from each other. Once again I have a poll about what might happen with a third nuclear weapon used in outright warfare...

[Poll #1762173]

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[1] To join the atom bomb club, you must have a nuclear initiation...

Comments

[rdfox.livejournal.com]

My answer is a *bit* complex. I selected "suicide bomber" in that I suspect it'll be delivered by ship, but not left behind, instead fired while still in the hold... and it'll either be burst in Hawaii or a US port, or, more likely, be fired while still well *outside* of a US port, after the SEALs hit the ship; whether it'll be set off to do as much damage as possible, or it's a case of "Well, fuck, I'm not sure we can dismantle it with the antitamper in place, better to just set the damned thing off out here instead" on the US's part, I'm not sure. (The limited "exchange" consists of that, and a couple of Tridents targeting NK strategic forces and nuclear infrastructure with MIRVs as a retaliatory strike.)

[nefaria.livejournal.com]

Most likely event for me is Iran nuking Israel because the Ayatollah and his pals want to start a huge war to usher in the Hidden Imam. Israel will see the missile(s) on radar and launch a nuclear-armed fighter squadron to retaliate. Israel and Iran will both perish. The aftermath of that would be completely unpredictable.

Second most likely story is a coup in Pakistan by the Islamists who decide to nuke Israel and as many U.S. bases as possible in the Mideast. U.S. turns Pakistan into a glass parking lot but suffers heavy casualties. Fallout all over the place. Aftermath again unpredictable.

If we manage to avoid #1 and #2, nuclear proliferation will eventually lead to terrorists with suitcase nukes. Instead of losing a restaurant at a time, we'll lose a city at a time. By the time we locate the factory making them and shut it down, the nukes will be scattered all over the globe. Welcome to a brave new world.