A Collapse of Reason

[vakkotaur]

"Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." -- Groucho Marx

So far the facts of the I-35W bridge collapse are few. That it collapsed, the time of the collapse, and that it could have been worse are about all that is truly known with any certainty. Even for Fairmont, which is two hours away from the Twin Cities it is at least partly a local story and that is likely the case for many other places.

Naturally, people want answers, especially to the questions "Why?" and "How?" The real answers aren't likely to be known anytime soon. That will take time and study. The NTSB will be re-constructing the bridge much like it reconstructs an aircraft to find what brought it down. But people are impatient and already there is a blamestorm brewing in the political weather. A common cry is that a lack of funds brought the bridge down. This is followed by demands for increasing taxes even more, in an already high tax state.

Note that the bridge collapsed in Minnesota, not in, say, Mississippi. I choose that example as the Governor's opposition a couple years ago was accusing him of attempting to turn Minnesota into a "cold Mississippi" by not caving in to their wishes for ever increasing tax rates.

The Minnesota Department of Transportation (MnDOT) was inspecting that bridge every year, not just every other year as legally required. While the rating was lower than would be liked, it had that same rating for several years and no need was seen for an accelerated replacement schedule. The bridge was scheduled for replacement in 2020. In fact, the last time the bridge was inspected was in May of this year, and it was decided that some additions to brace it might do more harm than good and were therefore not done. Another inspection was scheduled for the autumn.

Had MnDOT inspectors found any obvious critical problem, the bridge would have been closed or at least braced. The work on it when it collapsed was only for the roadbed. That a lack of tax revenue left the bridge vulnerable is simply not the case. Fixing a roadbed can wait, if the thing the roadbed is on is in clear danger of not being there anymore. To say that a lack of money led to the collapse is as silly as saying that the light rail project and multi-lingual signs brought the bridge down.

At the federal level, the latest (passed and signed into law) transportation bill included an increase in funds over the last such bill that the increase alone could have paid for a replacement three times over. The money was there. It wasn't used that way because no need to use it that way was seen. It wasn't even that politicians had earmarks for things. The unearmarked portions were more than adequate. It was that MnDOT engineers didn't find anything that indicated an urgent problem. The politicians simply listened to the engineers. That's the part that amazes me, but it evidently really happened.

Was something missed? Obviously. There's a saying, one of the 'laws' like Murphy's Law that sums it up: Nature sides with the hidden flaw. Something happened that wasn't accounted for. Everything is a suspect now, from spider webs that could look like hairline fractures and thus perhaps cause some real fractures to be dismissed, to pigeon droppings that made areas harder to inspect and more subject to corrosion, to idiot drivers who were not "Minnesota Nice" and subjected bridge inspectors to litter as missiles distracting them from their important work, to increased traffic. And they might all be factors - or it might be none of them. Simply: Nobody really knows. Not yet.

The replacement for the I-35W bridge will certainly be a different design. That bridge was made the way it was to keep the river as open as possible for river traffic. As can be seen by the design of the newer neighboring stone arch bridge, that wasn't as big a consideration later. The replacement will surely have more redundancy - one part failing will be alarming but the bridge should at least stay up.

The engineering forensic reports are not yet in and won't be for at least several months. Exactly what really caused the collapse is not yet known and speculation is just that: speculation. Those truly qualified to say what happened are smart enough not to make any claims until the facts are in.

Yet Minnesota will likely get an unnecessary gas tax hike, as emotions overrule logic: "Think of the children on our bridges!" It will be more than a bit surprising if that's the only tax hike that gets steamrolled over everyone as politicians rush in to misdiagnose the problem and apply the wrong remedy.

Unfortunately, the politicization of this will only get worse. Folks are already being silly and blaming Bush or Pawlenty for the collapse, even if only in a roundabout way. Now, where is the 2008 Republican convention going to be held? St. Paul. I expect even more, even more foolish, protesters than usual. I can't tell you what silly rhyme(s) or chants will be used, but I fully expect there will be such.

Comments

[rillaspins.livejournal.com]

Lets see...

Vibrations from train passing under bridge...check
Vibrations from several very heavy vehicles passing at the same time...check
Vibrations from Lock that had just cycled...check

It may not have taken much of a flaw, just the right set of vibrations at the right place to cause a complete failure.

But, we must have a new stadium...can't put off giving it to a billionaire. And light rail...it only cost $28 per person per ride to run...we should waste more money on more lines.

Don't even get me started.

[thecanuckguy.livejournal.com]

I think you've been watching too much Mythbusters ;) (specifically episode 60)

[rillaspins.livejournal.com]

??? um, no. I've been through earthquakes. Vibrations from everyday stuff can stress things more thatn earthquakes. It just takes longer.

[thecanuckguy.livejournal.com]

Actually, that was the point of the experiment. Apparently, in I think the 19th century, Nicola Tesla built a device he called an "earthquake machine". Doesn't have much to do with earthquakes except for vibration (but it has a good 19th century exaggerating tone to it) - you weren't that far off the mark, according to Tesla, and the Mythbusters who remade it, it works on simple vibrations that stress a piece of steel. Tesla, in his bragging sort of way, wrote that the machine, when put on his building, after half an hour swayed it so much like an earthquake, general panic, etc. The Mythbusters disproved that. They put it on a bridge to see what it would do to a real steel structure, it was still standing, of coruse, but the vibrations could be felt slightly throughout the whole bridge after about 90 minutes of it running. They concluded it wasn't enough to tear down the bridge any time soon, but it was a lot more than they expected.

[rillaspins.livejournal.com]

Ah, I see. Didn't Tesla also have a way of supplying everyone with free electricity? I think I read somewhere that his method may or may not up the cancer rate. **shrug** theories abound everywhere. I personally love reading a good conspiracy theory.

I just think there was so much going on with the bridge that something sprung in a catastrophic way. Add up all the vibration over 40 yrs and I'm not too surprised that it collapsed.

Am I panicking and refusing to cross any other bridges? No. Some of the streets around here are far more dangerous than the bridges.

Oh, and remember...tin foil hats only help project brainwaves to the aliens, not block them.


http://lostsupermariobrotherslevel.ytmnd.com/

[nefaria.livejournal.com]

Ah yes, Tesla wanted to make a humongous Tesla coil that shot out spikes of electricity to a city without using wires. Thankfully, the physics problems and health hazards of such an enormous, wild electrical source were discovered during the planning stages, and it was never built.

[rillaspins.livejournal.com]

Oh, I forgot to mention, the traffic pattern from the lane closings may have caused the bridge to sway. Also add in the jackhammers that were being used at the time.

[nefaria.livejournal.com]

I've seen a lot of folks begging to have their taxes raised to pay for bridge repairs. If Hillary wins, they will get their wishes, in spades! Looking like a 100% boost in taxes on "the rich" combined with enough taxes on fossil fuels to double most folks' utility and gas bills, that should be quite sufficient to cause an economic collapse.