An invalid argument: the time-improbability of evolution

One thing I've seen a reference to from time to time is a supposed refutation of evolution on the grounds of (im)probability. The argument goes that organic molecules being assembled into complex and reproducing forms is so improbable that the universe, let alone the earth, is simply not old enough for it to have happened.

One could counter this argument a few ways. The age of the universe might not be what we think it is. We don't know, for sure, what the actual improbability is. Heck, we're still working out how living systems, things we have working examples of, actually work. There are likely a whole lot of "Duh! It makes sense now! How'd we miss that for so long?!" moments ahead in biology. But the thing that annoys me is that the argument requires a fundamental misunderstanding of probability.

( About Probability )

Poll: Transcendental alienation

I'm not sure the first question was meant to be as it is or if it was to be just one or the other. Anyway, here are a couple definitions that might help. Hopefully they are the intended ones.

Transcendent: existing outside of or not in accordance with nature, outside of normal experience.

Teleological: directed toward a definite end, designed.

[Poll #748680]

Silly 'taur, Skittles are (manufactured) for kids.

I remember trying Skittles not too long after they first were advertised on television that I saw and being rather less than impressed. Every great once in a while I sample some and have been a bit more tolerant of them. For the last couple months I've seen the limited edition "Ice Cream Flavor" Skittles and today I bought a packet.

They are quite sweet. They are brightly colored. They have an unnatural feel to them when chewed. They are most certainly artificially flavored. That combination was oddly familiar. I'd tasted that before and not as Skittles. It took me a few moments to place it. Then it hit me: Skittles are what you get when you remove the last vestigial pretenses of being cereal from Trix!